Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater Illuminate the Path Forward
US Exceptionalism, AI Bubble, TIFF, Mauboussin, Arctos & More
“The stock market always does exactly what it is supposed to do, but never when.”
— Richard Russell
Research
Bridgewater - Is an AI Bubble Ahead of Us or Behind Us? (13 pages)
Greg Jensen suggests that the combination of breakthrough AI advancements and a ripe macroeconomic environment indicates the AI bubble may still be forming, rather than behind us.
Bridgewater - US Exceptionalism: Drivers of Equity Outperformance and What’s Needed for a Repeat (15 pages)
Bridgewater breaks down the drivers behind the S&P 500 outperformance since 2010 (rising margins, rising P/E ratios, massive fiscal support to profits) and says the hurdle for continued US outperformance is high, with a lot depending on technology.
Goldman Sachs - Updating our long-term return forecast for US equities to incorporate the current high level of market concentration (37 pages)
Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal return of 3% over the next decade, placing it in the 7th percentile historically, with high market concentration significantly contributing to the lower forecast.
Goldman Sachs - Diversify to Amplify (19 pages)
Peter Oppenheimer’s team says economic growth alongside lower policy rates creates a more favorable environment for equities, though high valuations and rising long-term rates may limit index-level gains, making alpha generation and diversification key drivers of future returns.
Podcasts
Capital Allocators: David Salem - Investment Wisdom from the Owner's Box: Salem, the founding president and CIO of TIFF, shares principles that guide successful investment strategies, lessons from investing greats, and his current views on global markets. [9/30/2024 - 65 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Money Maze Podcast: Sport Meets Finance! Investing in Liverpool FC, PSG, Boston Red Sox and F1 - With Ian Charles, Co-Founder of Arctos: One of the world’s largest sports investors covers the state of play on the sports business ecosystem. [9/26/24- 73 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
What Else Is Happening
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