Is the Market Too Concentrated?
Harry Markopolos, Jim O'Shaughnessy, Lori Calvasina, EM Ex-China
“We are in the business of making mistakes. Winners make small mistakes; losers make big mistakes.”
— Ned Davis
Research
Morgan Stanley - Stock Market Concentration (18 pages)
Michael Mauboussin looks at the concentration of global markets over the past 75 years and whether fundamental corporate performance supports the current increase in concentration.
Meketa - Emerging Market Equities without China (12 pages)
Meketa looks at the implications of removing China from the broader emerging markets group, analyzing country and sector composition, historical returns, valuations and more.
Facts & Figures
J.P. Morgan estimates Berkshire Hathaway now owns $158 billion in Treasury bills, or about 3% of the entire bill market. Link
The 100,000th person has gotten their CFP designation. Link
“No car company besides Tesla has been able to…sell more than 100,000 EVs a year across its EV lineup.” Link
Selena Gomez’ beauty brand, Rare Beauty, reached $400 million in sales for the 12 months ending in May, 2024. It is valued at ~$2 billion. Link
68% of High Yield and 61% of Investment Grade issuance over the last 10 years happened when the Fed Funds rate was below 1%. Link
The “Big 5” tech companies are sitting on over $400 billion in cash and have highly profitable core businesses.
The EPS growth gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P is expected to shrink.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb8705e89-f7a5-40a9-b74f-b3454b5f2656_537x537.png)
The number of activist campaigns by short sellers declined from 280 campaigns in 2015 to only 110 campaigns in 2023. Link
Podcasts
Alpha Exchange: Harry Markopolos, "The Man Who Knew": 15 years after the unwind of the Madoff Ponzi scheme, Markopolos looks back on that experience and makes the case that the penalties associated with being caught need to be considerably larger. [5/28/2024 - 40 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Masters in Business: Jim O'Shaughnessy: Jim O’Shaughnessy talks about his career, quantitative investing, and why AI will impact everything from art to stocks. [5/10/24- 95 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
The Knowledge Project: #193: Dr. Jim Loehr: Change the Stories You Tell Yourself: World-renowned performance psychologist Dr. Loehr explains the drivers behind successful achievement, personal fulfillment and life satisfaction. [4/30/2024 - 82 minutes] Apple | Spotify
What Else Is Happening
Did you miss last week’s email?
Meb Faber spoke with RBC's Lori Calvasina on the state of the U.S. equity market