“Investing goes off track when you believe you are entitled to high returns because you did all the right things.”
— Aswath Damodaran
Research
Man AHL - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (8 pages)
This paper tries to answer the question, ‘how much trend following should I hold in my portfolio?’ while considering the real-world constraints of investor preferences, lookback window and tracking error.
J.P. Morgan - Guide to the Markets (71 pages)
The latest Guide to the Markets is full of great charts on stocks, bonds, alternatives and the economy.
Bonus Content
John Hussman wrote about universal capitulation and no margin of safety (+ lots of great charts!). Link
Forerunner Ventures published their 2024 Consumer Trend Report, focusing on key shifts in values and technology. Link
48 charts on the U.S. housing market. Link
Jason Zweig shared what he learned from Daniel Kahneman. Link
Stock-Based Compensation
Seven ways to look at stock-based compensation and dilution. Link
Brad Gerstner, Bill Gurley and Priceline/Booking CFO Bob Mylod had a great discussion about stock-based compensation in a recent podcast. Link
Podcasts
The Tim Ferriss Show: #730: Reed Hastings, Co-Founder of Netflix: Hastings talks about how to cultivate high performance, his favorite failures, the art of farming for dissent & more. [4/3/2024 - 64 minutes] Apple | Spotify
On The Tape: A Conversation with Roy Niederhoffer: Starting at 31:00, Niederhoffer talks about drivers of volatility in the markets, trend-following, trading/behavioral biases & more. [4/8/2024 - 72 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Excess Returns: The Case for Value Investing with Tobias Carlisle: Carlisle talks about the struggles of value investing and why he thinks they present a significant opportunity to long-term investors. [4/4/2024 - 65 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
What Else Is Happening
Did you miss last week’s email?
Meb Faber spoke with GMO’s Catherine LeGraw about where she sees opportunity around the globe.