🌏 National Capitalism
+ Michael Cembalest, Jeff Bezos, Owen Lamont, Russell Napier, Jesse Itzler & More
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies.”
— Warren Buffett
Research
J.P. Morgan - Eye on the Market: 2025 Outlook (49 pages)
Run, don’t walk, to dive into Michael Cembalest’s must-read 2025 Outlook. His 10 predictions for 2025 start on page 42.
GMO - Bargain, Value Trap or Something in Between? (20 pages)
GMO’s Q4 letter covers a number of topics, including why they believe U.S. large cap value stocks are attractive today, why they are cautious on China, and why they are tilting towards quality in U.S. small cap stocks.
The Market - We Are Headed Towards a System of National Capitalism (15 pages)
Market strategist and historian Russell Napier says the global monetary system that has existed since 1994 is being radically restructured. He explains why this leads him to believe the future may feature governments mandating where investors should deploy their capital.
Bonus Content
Owen Lamont says big growth stocks are becoming increasingly disconnected from the rest of the market, with the current disconnect at the 99th percentile. Link
Capital Group thinks small cap stocks may have hit an inflection point. Link
J.P. Morgan Asset Management published their year-end Guide to the Markets. Link
Jeff Bezos covers what’s next for Amazon, Blue Origin and his vision for humanity’s future in space (66 minutes). Link
You can own the cheapest stocks, or you can own the largest, but finding opportunities to own both simultaneously is rare in today's market. Link
Podcasts
The Bid - From Baseline to Bottom Line: The intersection of tennis and Investing: BlackRock’s Ronald Van Loon uses a commencement speech by Roger Federer as a jumping off point to discuss the parallels between tennis and investing. [9/27/24 - 17 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
My First Million: How to plan an epic 2025, without setting goals | Jesse Itzler: Entrepreneur Jesse Itzler shares some ideas on how to be proactive and get 2025 off to a big start. [12/16/24 - 59 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Cautionary Tales: Adidas v Puma: A Battle of Boots and Brothers: Tim Hartford shares the story of the brothers behind Adidas and Puma, and how their rivalry divided the sporting world, their family and even their home town. [6/21/24 - 40 minutes] Apple | Spotify
What Else is Happening
Check out the top 5 episodes of The Meb Faber Show from 2024:
Aswath Damodaran on the corporate lifecycle, the end of ESG, sugar daddies & more. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Brad Gerster on the AI supercycle and Invest America. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Cliff Asness on why markets have become less efficient during his career. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Hendrik Bessembinder on his research covering long-term stock returns, wealth generation, and power laws in the stock market. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Professor Ken French on long-term investing, the global market portfolio, misconceptions about stock buybacks & more. Apple | Spotify | YouTube