“It is difficult to systematically beat the market. But it is not difficult to systematically throw money down a rat hole by generating commissions (and other costs).”
— Michael Jensen
Research
GMO - A Second Opinion Is Just What the Doctor Ordered (9 pages)
GMO shares where they see opportunity if you are willing to look different than a standard, capitalization-weighted 60/40 portfolio.
Deutsche Bank - Latest in AI: Five clues to the future of AI in recent headlines (17 pages)
Deutsche Bank covers the five AI themes below and what they suggest about the future of AI.
AI is the elephant in the stock room
Data centers are AI Ground Zero
AI is still a magnet for funding
Political appetite is growing for AI regulation
Real-world uses have yet to emerge at scale
As of September 11, 2024
Stifel - Obesity Market Review (340 pages)
Stifel published a huge research piece on the emerging market for pharmaceutical products for obesity, the consumerization of obesity drug buying via online telelhealth, and the secondary and tertiary effects of these drugs impacting obesity.
Facts & Figures
The pharma industry currently accounts for about 70% of GDP growth in Denmark. Link
Apple’s 2023 revenue (almost $400 billion) makes it about as big as the entire economy of Denmark or the Philippines. Link
The median age of all U.S. homebuyers is now 49 years old, up from 31 in 1981. Link
BlackRock has returned an average of 20.7% per year since its IPO in 1999, outperforming the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, Amazon and Microsoft. Link
Millennium has generated $56 billion in gains for investors after fees since the firm’s inception in 1989. Link
Ed Yardeni highlights past geopolitically-induced selloffs tended to be buying opportunities.
Investing regardless of the party has far outpaced investing for only Democrats or Republicans. Link
Given the substantial contribution of healthcare and government jobs to overall payroll growth over the past year, a slowdown in these categories could lead to a further deceleration in job gains.
Default rate by year for global sovereign bonds, emerging market corporate high yield bonds, and U.S. corporate high yield bonds. Link
Podcasts
This Week in Startups : The New Power Law & How I Built a $100B Portfolio | E2007: Pejman Nozad and Jason Shuman, two VC’s, each give presentations on their strategies & the role power laws play in good and great VC funds. [9/12/2024 - 50 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: How Sequoia Capital’s Roelof Botha is forging the future: Botha discusses his career, Sequoia’s culture and investment processes, and how he finds and builds enduring businesses. [9/20/24- 60 minutes] Apple | Spotify | YouTube
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Brad Gerstner about the AI supercycle, stock compensation, and his initiative, Invest America. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
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